Excerpts

From the Introduction My vantage point for the study of technology comes from the perspective of an operator. I have spent most of my professional life considering national security and defense issues. My training, education and experiences have also largely been concentrated on such applications. Whether, in uniform, in industry or as a senior civilian in the US government, my reflections on the use of technology have largely been from an operational perspective. Interspersed with these operational experiences have been educational opportunities to consider the evolution of technology, how it affects our society and the world in which we live, and what might be the possibilities for the future. I have come to believe that technology has been a central organizing construct throughout the history of humankind. We see this in our everyday tools and conveniences as well as in the manner and speed at which we consume and exchange information. However, over the past two hundred years, the rate of technological development has accelerated exponentially. The confluence of technologies led by information, communications, and transportation have been the driving force behind a series of monumental changes that we have labeled globalization. We are witnessing a symbiotic relationship between technologies where advances in one area contribute to growth in other endeavors. As technologies develop, they lead to other technologies and even new fields. Just over the past fifty years, we have seen space travel to the moon, the formation of a new domain called cyber, and are possibly on the verge of redefining what it means to be human through a mix of biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of things. The overwhelming pace of technological development has made world seem smaller, has increased competition between nations, and even changed the dynamics of human interactions. We are now more intertwined across global societies and know more about each other and the physical world in which we live. Ominously, the rate of change of technology, either the individual technologies or in combinations, shows no evidence of slowing down. In fact, such change and technological development appears to be accelerating. For me, the analogy has been the Disney World ride in which one sits in a car that moves at a fixed pace, while projections along the walls create the perception that one is speeding along, moving first by horse and carriage, then in an automobile, then in a rocket ship speeding throughout the galaxy. Just as the Disney ride moving at a fixed pace, humans too have biological processes that have remained relatively constant -- the beating of a human heart, the speed at which we move -- yet our surroundings have accelerated placing greater demands on us in areas such as cognition and response to situations and crises that arise. We are living in a nonlinear world where combinations of technologies have become far greater than the sum of the parts. In this way, we signify that the function is no longer additive, but rather multiplicative or perhaps even exponential. We are witnessing new generations of technology in rapid succession across many technology areas. Consider how rapidly new generations of cellular telephones are delivered to market or how autonomous systems are becoming a reality, encroaching into nearly every aspect of our lives. It will likely not be too long until we become a driverless society. It is within this backdrop that we will consider technology development. Looking at the past provides a perspective on how far we have progressed. Understanding where we are today allows us to take stock of the progress we have made. Looking towards the future allows us to think of the possibilities. In this future, understanding which technologies will be the most important, how to combine them to gain maximum benefit, and understanding technology's effect on society will be important to the future of humankind. Just as in millennia past when humans used early technology to build tools for survival, future generations must also build the tools that will ensure their survival. This book examines the future of technology and proposes a methodology to better understand how technology is likely to evolve in the future. It will not attempt to pick individual technology winners and losers, but rather will seek to provide a structured way to think about future technologies. Looking through this lens, we will identify the attributes that a future successful technology will seek to emulate and identify pitfalls a technology developer should seek to avoid. This process will also help us think about the impact of technology on individuals and societies. Future technological development has the potential to alter the traditional relationships between nations and societies and societies and individuals. Undoubtedly in this developmental process, there will be those who argue for going slowly, while others are likely to call for an even faster pace. How this delicate balance proceeds will be important to the types of societies that emerge. Inevitably, questions about the potential for managing technology will arise. Will the mechanisms that have been developed and are used today remain relevant (or successful) in this new age of technology? Specifically, will laws, policies, regulations, standards, and codes of ethics developed in a different era remain useful to managing technology in the future? Or will new mechanisms need to be developed? In this discussion, some may seek to label certain technologies as being not worthy of examination, identify them as significant dual use threats, or delineate them as inherently dangerous. I reject this characterization of technology and would submit that it is not the technology, but rather how it is used by individuals, organizations, and nations that determines whether a technology becomes a threat or alternatively an opportunity. Furthermore, in considering technology's role in the future, one only need look at history to understand that halting development of a technology is irrational, a self-defeating strategy, and not possible. Humankind has always sought to advance, and technology has been one of the facilitators of and accelerators for this progress. Technology for survival created opportunities for gaining better understandings of the natural world creating opportunities for societies to grow. These understandings helped to build the world of today. This book was motivated by several personal experiences. First, my observations about the importance of technology in the security and defense field have been foundational. The history of warfare contains numerous examples of specialized technologies designed to improve the efficiency of armies in battle. It also contains examples of technologies developed for civilian or peaceful purposes being applied in warfare with great effect. Perhaps not as well understood is that many of the technologies originally developed for use in warfare have later been civilianized and adapted for non-military uses with great benefit to society. Second, my experiences serving in government in the Department of Homeland Security in the Science & Technology Directorate caused me to directly confront questions surrounding how technologies are developed and what leads to successful transitions that serve operational purposes. They also reinforced that successful technology development has as much to do with getting operator buy-in and fulfilling an operational requirement, as it does with the technology. Said another way, the technology may be terrific, but if the operator cannot or will not use it, then it is irrelevant. Finally, on many occasions, friends and colleagues have asked questions about the development of technology. Some are simply looking to know more about the field. Others are asking for practical purposes as they look to integrate technological solutions into a business deal. Still others are looking to better understand how a novel, dual use or disruptive technology is likely to shape an outcome. This book has been developed with these experiences in mind. The book consists of three parts: foundations, managing technology, and the future. In foundations, the basics of technology are considered. What is the difference between science and technology, research and development, innovation and transformation? Do these distinctions matter any longer given how in our society today, they are largely used interchangeably. In managing technology, the current systems of controls are considered to understand how effective they have been and how to think about future technologies that will be developed. The final part of the book, the future, examines the roles and responsibilities of those that use technology (which is all of us) to those that develop technology. And so, our journey begins... Excerpted from The Story of Technology: How We Got Here and What the Future Holds by Daniel M. Gerstein All rights reserved by the original copyright owners. Excerpts are provided for display purposes only and may not be reproduced, reprinted or distributed without the written permission of the publisher.